By Mark Kenny

A version of this article was originally published by The Canberra Times.

Outside of the upside-down world of US presidential politics, the bombshell ruling of a Manhattan criminal court finding Donald J Trump guilty as charged, is unnervingly tricky to read.

The defining feature of Trump's upside-down gravity is that the lower he sinks by objective community standards, the more unstoppable becomes his victim-powered electoral juggernaut.

In a trick worthy of Houdini, his setbacks become everyone else's downside risk. America's allies included.

Understanding this inversion must be front-of-mind for the Australian government in assessing the novel danger of a former/future president, being a convicted felon.

Circumspection is the name of the game in Canberra because Trump is nothing if not a hater.

Ultimately, Trump's return is a matter for American voters. Still, this is a crisis for American prestige and democratic integrity, as its own laws and sanctions show.

Were the trial conducted in the former New Yorker's adoptive white-shoe bolthole of Florida, his conviction on 34 felony counts would render him unable to vote - even for himself. Worse, he could be barred from ever voting again on the grounds of moral turpitude. In New York, though, where the charges were brought, he could not vote from prison.

A custodial sentence remains remotely possible when sentencing occurs in July - just four days before the GOP formally declares Trump as its nominee. But know this, he will contest the election, whether or not he can cast a ballot.

So, despite the swiftness of the jury's deliberations, Anthony Albanese will be well-advised to tread carefully.

In any event, there will be appeals, potentially at two levels of New York's criminal jurisdiction taking months, and then on to the Supreme Court of the United States - yes, the one he outrageously stacked.

Meanwhile, just six months from now, the 2024 presidential race will have played out and a vengeful Trump, based on current polling, would be the president-elect. That's how close all this is.

Writing on ex-Twitter, David Axelrod, a former close adviser to Barack Obama, urged the Biden White House to resist the temptation to "focus obsessively" on the verdict or to assume it has just been given a leg-up.

"Trump will sink more deeply into obsessive rage and self-pity ... the right play for Biden may be to lean even more into the day-to-day concerns of people. The contrast would be powerful. People want a president obsessed with addressing their problems, not his own."

This is wise counsel, adaptable to Australia also.

Besides, there is no "equivalence" to use a current term, between the international courts to which Australia is signatory - ICJ, ICC - and a domestic criminal proceeding in the US.

Mark Kenny is the Director of the ANU Australian Studies Institute and host of the Democracy Sausage podcast.