Analysis: I remember the '90s. Rates stayed too high for too long and the result was ruinous

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Thursday 5 September 2024

By Mark Kenny

A version of this article was originally published by The Canberra Times.

Wayne Swan invoked terms like "hand-in-glove" to describe how the separate levers of fiscal and monetary policy were being pulled in unison during the global financial crisis.

Joe Hockey insisted there was "not a cigarette paper between" him and Tony Abbott on unpopular tax reform in 2015.

Unity in economic policy is considered crucial which is why treasurers have been careful not to appear at odds with the RBA nor be seen as trespassers on its hallowed independence.

On Sunday, Jim Chalmers, the Treasurer who once worked for a treasurer (the forementioned Swan) went as close as any to directly criticising the RBA for "smashing" the economy with high interest rates.

On Wednesday he felt sadly vindicated. "I think the comments I made on Sunday ... were just a statement of fact" Chalmers said.

His candour followed the release of June national accounts showing that GDP growth is virtually non-existent - held positive only by government spending and immigration.

Such frustrations are inevitable when economic conditions prompt the central bank to inflict real-world pain on borrowers to curb their consumption right as an election looms.

It wouldn't matter so much if the bank's monetary policy record was spotless and the economic doctrines it applies were guaranteed to turn things swiftly to the good.

But neither is certain. Indeed, because monetary policy movements take months to influence consumer behaviour and, therefore, the economy, they almost always lag behind reality.

This can be a problem. By the time the bank has amassed sufficient evidence to warrant an adjustment one way or the other, it is already 10 or 12 months into whatever the problem is.

This is the growing fear inside the Labor caucus - that the bank will have killed the economy just as the Albanese government seeks re-election.

The June quarter data - which, let's remember, is already months old - suggest Australia is in a recession in all but name.

Its dire numbers come freighted with the prospects of more job-shedding, further business failures and lower investment.

And yet still the RBA insists it will not ease rates this year. This feels eerily similar to the stubbornness of the early 1990s. Back then, rates were left too high for too long and the result was a ruinous recession.

RBA governor Michele Bullock's predecessor got stuck in a commitment to keep the cash rate near functional zero before having to backtrack, leaving retail borrowers dangerously exposed.

But Chalmers knows it won't be the board that is targeted at the ballot box.

Mark Kenny is the Director of the ANU Australian Studies Institute and host of the Democracy Sausage podcast.

Updated:  9 September 2024/Responsible Officer:  Institute Director/Page Contact:  CASS Marketing & Communications