Photo by Brett Jordan on Unsplash
By Mark Kenny
A version of this article was originally published by The Canberra Times.
To mislay one defence pact may be regarded as misfortune, but to fumble two within a fortnight looks like carelessness. Incompetence, even.
Such is the earnest view of Sussan Ley's bedraggled opposition, albeit from its supine position on the political canvas.
Anthony Albanese's last-minute failure to finalise two purportedly locked-in defence pacts with his counterparts in Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea, however, was not merely the usual triumph of ambition over preparation.
Rather, it again suggested that affluent Australia has yet to fully imbibe the breadth of views among smaller countries constituting its "near abroad".
Inconvenient as these hold-ups are, they might have been years in the making.
Since coming to office in 2022, Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong have noticeably stepped up Pacific engagement with more frequent visits and a joint bid with Pacific Island states to host the 2026 COP31 climate change conference in Adelaide.
That promises to be a very big deal for Australia and the region if it goes ahead.
But Australia's own performance on climate, its role as the third largest per capita emitter of greenhouse gasses (when its fossil fuel exports are included) and decisions to extend or approve polluting projects, continues to erode Pacific Islands' confidence.
Just over a week ago, Australia's "exceptionalism" was noted in the region when Woodside's giant North West Shelf gas project had its potential operating life extended out to 2070.
Past Coalition governments famously mocked the existential pre-occupation of low-lying states with rising sea levels, while kissing up to big fossil.
Then came Trump mk II, breaking any post-war spell of Anglosphere dependability, normative propriety and long-term security.
China, the region's only resident superpower, has moved to fill the vacuum with the provision of major infrastructure projects, new commercial investments, plus security and policing support.
Criticise them if you like, but such mercantilism from economically vulnerable island states neatly befits the unmoored tenor of the times.
Increasingly, these post-colonial states are seeking new forms of sovereignty and international respect. They want a better deal. To put this into a familiar Australian parlance, they have wised up and started to behave like marginal seats.
Does this mean the Puk Puk Treaty between Australia and PNG is in doubt? Apparently not, judging by the strong support expressed by both leaders.
"What this does is formalise what I think is a commonsense position resulting from our history and resulting from our geography," said Prime Minister James Marape.
"This is in the interests of Papua New Guinea and in the interests of Australia."
Nonetheless, it is always possible for new demands to be made, especially if there are others in the PNG government who hold different views or see a tactical advantage in throwing up fresh roadblocks.
Across the world, both domestically and internationally, politics has entered a ratty materialist phase where enduring values and traditional ties are succumbing to shorter-term transactional exigencies - deal-making, alliance-shopping, and the shameless primacy of personal and political advantage.
Donald Trump is both product and accelerant of this unravelling. From a post-war settlement where longstanding alliances were just that - longstanding even through changes of government - a mercurial looseness has emerged. It is a "might-is-right" world of double-standards, insatiable egos and barely hidden self-aggrandisement.
This is the reality Albanese confronts regionally and globally. One where smaller nations are less reluctant to eschew longstanding allegiances, and where larger nations grow ever more disdainful of those below them.
For a middle power like Australia, this brings the discomfort of receiving slights in stereo - ie from higher up the international pecking order, and from below.
Albanese got something of a taste of this wildness in Vanuatu and perhaps a second serve in the delay in Port Moresby.
He won't want to build a reputation for such anti-climaxes, which is why he is treading more carefully on his mooted first face-to-face with Trump this week.
After their cancelled assignation in Canada, Albanese has judiciously refrained from foreshadowing such a bilateral, even if Trump himself has referred to it - albeit while slapping down an Australian journalist.
The ABC's Americas editor, John Lyons had queried Trump about his businesses and asked if it was appropriate to accumulate such riches in office.
Trump was not happy: "In my opinion, you are hurting Australia very much right now, and they want to get along with me," he shot back with a formulation that betrayed his authoritarian conception of power.
"You know, your leader is coming over to see me very soon. I'm going to tell him about you. You set a very bad tone."
Shortly thereafter, came this childish rant from "@Rapid Response 47" which, believe it or not, is the Twitter handle of the "Official White House Rapid Response account".
"POTUS smacks down a rude foreign Fake News loser", it read. Lyons was subsequently barred from attending a Trump press conference in Britain during Trump's two-day state visit there.
Murmurings in Canberra on Friday suggested even the forthcoming Trump meeting may fall through. Would it really matter? Perhaps only to Albanese, who would rather avoid a fourth high-profile "no-show" in his 2025 calendar.
Mark Kenny is the Director of the ANU Australian Studies Institute and host of the Democracy Sausage podcast.